COLUMN: Think Again – Two different paths for Premier Kinew

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 01/01/2024 (443 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Most people, even those who voted for a different party, are inclined to give a new premier the benefit of the doubt. They recognize that governing is hard work and that it takes time for the premier and his cabinet to get fully acquainted with their departments.

Many promises were made during the campaign. Among other things, Kinew promised to fix healthcare, balance the budget, cut the provincial gas tax, improve schools, and make life more affordable for Manitobans. These were hefty commitments, and he has his work cut out for him.

During its first year in office, it usually becomes clear whether a government plans to build up its political capital or squander it. In Kinew’s case, building his political capital would mean controlling spending, making commonsense improvements to healthcare, and following through on affordability measures. In other words, follow in the footsteps of former NDP Premier Gary Doer.

Or Kinew could squander his political capital by doing what NDP Premier Greg Selinger did. Raising taxes, increasing spending, pandering to his union buddies, and ignoring concerns from the public would get Kinew thrown out of office like what happened to Selinger. It took the NDP two full election cycles to recover from the trail of political destruction that Selinger left in his wake.

To Kinew’s credit, he acted a lot more like Gary Doer than Greg Selinger during his first two months in office. Despite considerable pressure from the left to renege on his gas tax pledge, he introduced legislation to cut the gas tax by 14 cents per litre for at least the next six months. Not only that, but he also kept the previously announced PC income tax cuts in place.

In justifying his decision, Kinew correctly observed that Manitobans had already made financial plans for the upcoming year and that it would be unfair to suddenly hit them with a tax increase.

It is also a relief that Kinew plans to keep the education property tax rebates in place. Even better, the rebate will be directly applied to tax bills at source, so the province doesn’t have to waste money mailing out individual cheques to each taxpayer. This makes it much easier for the municipalities who collect the education tax.

However, Kinew also made some missteps. For example, he had no choice but to abandon his party’s ridiculous pledge to “stop sending cheques to billionaires.” Governments cannot arbitrarily change property tax bills based on the assumed incomes of the individuals or companies receiving them. This is basic governance 101 and Kinew should have known that before making this absurd campaign promise.

Kinew also learned that meddling with Manitoba Hydro is a bad idea. While he had promised to freeze hydro rates for the upcoming year, Finance Minister Adrian Sala recently announced that this won’t happen anytime soon. It turns out that Manitoba Hydro’s revenue is dependent on a bunch of factors outside the government’s control and that it doesn’t make sense to treat this crown corporation like a cash cow.

Of course, the elephant in the room is healthcare. Kinew made a lot of grandiose promises about reopening emergency rooms, hiring more doctors and nurses, and shortening wait times. While Manitobans will extend Kinew some grace, our patience won’t last forever. We are already seeing more news stories about overburdened emergency rooms and ever-lengthening wait lists. Kinew needs to start showing results soon.

Which path will Premier Wab Kinew take in 2024? Is he the next Gary Doer or will he turn into a repeat of Greg Selinger?

Only time will tell.

Michael Zwaagstra is a high school teacher and a Steinbach city councillor. He can be reached at mzwaagstra@shaw.ca.