PPC not going anywhere after voters flee smaller parties

Provencher voters followed the national trend of casting their ballots for the largest two parties in the federal election, which meant parties like the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) saw a large drop in voter support.

The PPC share of the Provencher vote dropped from 16.5 percent in 2021 to 1.8 percent this election. The total votes went from 8,227 in 2021 to 943.

Most of those PPC votes likely went to the Conservatives, who jumped from 24,294 votes (48.7 percent) to 34,364 votes (66.1 percent).

But according to Provencher PPC candidate for both of those elections Noel Gautron, there was still support for the party even from those who did not necessarily vote for them.

“For this election, for our part it runs in line with what we were expecting,” said Gautron.

He pointed out the two parties on the right side of the political spectrum received a slightly larger share of the vote than 2021.

“Donors who were at the same time were giving me money [were] then telling me that they’re voting Conservative.”

He said those voters told him they wanted the PPC to stick around, and Gautron said that will be the case.

He also believes that with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre losing his seat in Parliament and the question of who will lead that party in the next election up in the air, there is an opportunity for the PPC. Gautron believes a lot of people voted for the leader or party brand more than their local candidates.

“It was a highly polarized election a lot like the last one. The last one we of course benefitted from an extraordinary example of a feckless leader on the part of the Conservatives, that being Mr. O’Toole. So that rubbed them the wrong way, Conservative voters particularly were more open to us.

“Pierre for our part, he’s a leader that our people are even a lot more positive on,” explained Gautron.

The NDP suffered a similar fate as the PPC in Provencher, with their votes going from 6,270 (12.6 percent) to 2,398 (4.6 percent). The Liberals likely benefited, going from 8,471 votes (17 percent) to 13,594 (26.1 percent). The Greens also lost 568 votes this election.

Gautron does not foresee Canada becoming a two-party country.

“It’s a specific election. We’re in a particularly pungent streak of anti-Americanism presently,” he said.

He foresees parties outside of the Liberals and Conservatives making a comeback.

“The contrast with the NDP is quite right in my view. We are effectively the NDP of the right. And the reality is we’re there to voice the concerns that aren’t palatable for the two governing parties,” said Gautron.

With American tariffs and a likely recession hanging over the country that elected a minority government on April. 28, Gautron expects there to be another opportunity for the PPC to make its mark in the next 12-18 months.

He said that next one would likely be PPC leader Maxime Bernier’s last, assuming the PPC founder earns a plurality of the internal confidence vote the party holds after every election.

“He said he doesn’t want to run for office past 70 years old,” said Gautron.