COLUMN: View from the Legislature – Uncertainty surrounds fall session

The transition from summer to fall in Manitoba brings with it a number of familiar routines. Vacations, summer festivals and time at the lake start to be in the rear-view mirror and the focus shifts to families adjusting to school and regular work schedules. The gradual change in temperature and the changing of the colours on the trees isn’t always welcome by many, but there is something comforting about the predictability that Manitoba’s four distinct seasons bring.

In Canadian politics, that predictability is noticeably absent in a world where long established norms and relationships are challenged every day. The most obvious and painful one for Canadians is the fracturing of the economic relationship that our country has had with the United States for many decades. The nature with which the U.S. administration has gone about trying to dismantle this relationship has not only been economically hurtful for Canada, but every indication is also that it has been personally insulting for many Canadians as well.

During all this uncertainty, Parliament and legislatures across Canada are returning and the issues that need to be dealt with are as serious as any our country has faced in decades. The federal government is working at speed to try to diversify our economic relationships around the world. And while Canada is a desirable trading partner for many other nations, trade agreements and long-time supply chains and economic relationships take a long time to establish.

Here in Manitoba, the provincial government announced this week that the province’s deficit for the last fully audited year topped more than $800 million. Not long ago, this would have been considered a terrible result, and yet Manitoba’s premier held a news conference trying to tell Manitobans that this was wonderful news and better news was yet to come. Yet we also know that the regional flooding that happened in Manitoba this year will cost hundreds of millions of dollars while at the same time, Manitoba Hydro continues to lose hundreds of millions of dollars because of drought (it is a uniquely Manitoba experience that both flooding and drought impact us simultaneously). How exactly the provincial NDP government plans to manage these financial challenges will be an important part of the discussion that happens at the Manitoba legislature this fall.

What was also revealed in the most recently released financial statements is that the Manitoba economy continues to be essentially stagnant. Growth lags behind most other provinces and there doesn’t seem to be a plan on how to create more economic activity. While the uncertainty around tariffs and U.S. trade policy clearly weighs on all provincial economies, the relative weakness in Manitoba also points to the fact that there isn’t a clear plan or effort to increase the economic base of the province.

While families settle into a familiar fall routine, the uncertainty of the world will be felt in the elected assemblies in Canada this fall. And the outcome of those discussions and the decisions that are made will be as impactful as any that our nation has seen in many years.