COLUMN: View from the Legislature – What message was being sent by U.S. voters?

Last week, voters across the United States participated in their midterm elections where some seats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate were up for grabs along with positions for state governor and various other elected offices. Canadians have always paid a disproportionate amount of attention to politics south of our border, but for observers in Manitoba and across Canada this was especially so during this midterm election cycle.

After two years of trade disruption and comments that challenged the sovereignty of Canada, local observers were eager to see what judgement U.S. voters would pass and what effect it might have on restoring more traditional relationships between our two nations. Of course, the state of cross border relations is much closer to the top of mind for most Canadians than most Americans. U.S. voters identified the high cost of living, the war with Iran and corruption as their key concerns. But the relationship with Canada did register with many voters and particularly in certain states such as Michigan and Maine where it was a key part of the campaigns.

When the night was over, the Democratic Party in the United States had made sweeping gains. They not only won the majority in the U.S. House, which was expected, but also the U.S. Senate, which was less certain. And they did so in dramatic fashion making gains in deeply held Republican states like Texas and Kansas. Even most Republicans expressed surprise as the strength of the Democratic results.

Like with most election results, there are different ways to interpret what message voters sent. Clearly, given the overwhelming nature of the results, Americans were unhappy with a number of issues. President Trump repeatedly stated after the results were in that it was not a reflection on him because he was not on the ballot. Realistically, midterms are always a reflection of who is in the White House. And exit polls show that the dominant issues on voters’ minds were largely those that were driven by the Trump administration. The fact that local voting results reflect the top leaders of the country is true in Canada as much as it is in the United States.

But for Canadians, the more interesting part is what does it say about Canada and U.S. relations and what does it mean going forward? The former seems easier to interpret than the latter.

There is no question that, at least to some degree (and more so in places like Michigan and Maine) the deterioration of Canada-U.S. relations weighed heavily on the minds of voters. Poll after poll showed voters value their relationship with Canada and wanted the trade war to end. That must be considered a positive for Canadian officials trying to return to more predictable and beneficial trade relationships. What the response of the White House will be is, however, far less certain.

From the beginning, it has been clear that the interest in waging a tariff war with Canada and other U.S. allies was not widely popular among elected officials in the U.S., either Democratic or Republican. But it was a high priority for the president and some around him. And while losing both the House and the Senate significantly curtails the power of the president, on matters of foreign affairs he maintains many powerful levers. How he decides to exercise those powers is unclear. While it seems the Democratic wave that swept America was in part in response to the tariffs and frosty relationship with Canada, there is little indication thus far that it will change the position of the president on tariffs.

What seems more likely however is that a new phase has begun that will include people in the Republican Party and Democratic Party positioning themselves for a run at president in two years or trying to get elected or re-elected to the House or Senate. And the message that voters sent about the importance of Canada-U.S. relations will be difficult to ignore for those individuals.